NEWS FROM UKRAINE: WHAT A PEACE AGREEMENT LOOKS LIKE

As the war approaches its third year, a renewed focus on peace talks have recaptured public attention. But in order to understand what “peace” might look like between Ukraine and Russia, we need to understand a few fundamental facts about russia and the way a terrorist state operates.

The first thing to understand is that russia’s word is worth less than a ruble (currently valued at $0.0097 USD). russia’s history as a nation is littered with broken promises and shattered peace deals. In fact, the current conflict is itself in direct violation to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which russia promised to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and abstain from infringing on Ukraine’s territorial integrity. As part of this agreement, Ukraine gave up its nuclear defense capabilities – a sign of good will that russia quickly exploited in pursuit of its own violent ambitions, including using the nuclear-capable missiles and planes russia got from Ukraine to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in this war.

It took russia only two decades to violate the Budapest Memorandum when, in 2014, russia illegally invaded and annexed Crimea. In 2022, less than 10 years later, Russia attacked again– hoping for a 3-day war but instead leading to the 3-year conflict that rages on to this day. And this is just the most recent example from the 21st century; cases like this are abundant in the former incarnations of the russian federation, including ussr and the russian empire.

Anyone who believes that a new “peace agreement” with russia will be treated with any more integrity than the last “peace” agreement with russia is, at best, grossly naive. Rather, a “peace agreement” should be construed as a hollow euphemism for a ceasefire, during which russia will build back its forces and attack again when it is strategically advantageous to do so (just as it has done before).

It is also worth noting that there is little reason to believe that russia wants peace. On the contrary, Putin has given every indication that his goal is the total destruction of Ukrainian identity and the assimilation of the Ukrainian people under the russian authoritarian state. Notably, whispers of “peace” by kremlin officials often coincide with debates in the U.S. about Ukrainian aid packages, suggesting a lack of sincerity on the part of the kremlin and that any hints of a possible negotiation by the russians are a political strategy to dissuade “escalating” the war through further international support. If russia really wants peace, there is little stopping them from retracting their military personnel from the sovereign nation they are currently brutalizing. 

One must also be aware of the double standards polluting possible peace talks. Many media sources implicitly suggest that Ukraine is being somehow unreasonable in its continued fight to ensure the sovereignty of its people rather than simply capitulating to a dictator who, unprovoked, is actively attempting to destroy them. The not-so-subtle undertone is that Ukraine should not only cede some portion of its territory to its violent invaders, but that Ukraine should also be expected to trust in a peace agreement with a dictator who we have every reason to believe will dishonor any such treaty as soon as it is convenient to do so.

With these considerations in mind, it’s easy to see that a path to peace for Ukraine cannot be based on mere agreements with russia, but instead must be based on concrete security guarantees that are strong enough to deter future russian aggression. Anything less is an unequivocal victory for russia. 

The conditions that might constitute satisfactory security guarantees for Ukraine are understandably complex. The most straightforward and meaningful pathway to peace would be admitting Ukraine into NATO – a defensive coalition of nations that would serve as a strong deterrent against future russian aggression. However, putin has been clear that this is not a satisfactory outcome for russia, likely given their intent to attack again and finish the job later.

This complicates the path to peace for Ukraine. While supporters of freedom, democracy, and peace invariably want to see the violence in Ukraine come to an end, a peace without guarantees will be short-lived, and we must be wary of russia’s unscrupulous character when peace does come.